By the time many of you read this blog post Iowa will have already caucused and I will either look like a prophet or an idiot but nonetheless, Iowans cast the first votes today in the '08 presidential season and I for one am pumped. Not in my ENTIRE LIFE has no sitting president or vice president been running for either party's nomination (therefore giving them a near assurance of garnering the nom.) so this race has been fluid and exciting from day one on both sides and for someone who views politics in a very similar realm to sports this is a thriller!
I say this because as of right now 8 (EIGHT!) people could still very realistically become president. I include Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Thompson, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani and McCain in this group. Also, if Joe Biden or Bill Richardson can finish a strong 4th in Iowa and continue momentum through New Hampshire next week they stay in the mix too. Kucinich is fucked, fuck. After Iowa and certainly New Hampshire though this field will dwindle.
On the Democratic side, whoever finishes third out of the big three of Clinton, Obama, Edwards will really be on the ropes and have to finish a strong second or better in New Hampshire to stay viable. Recent violence in Pakistan has given a boost to the candidacies of lower-tier candidates Biden, Richardson and even Chris Dodd who aren't the rock stars that Clinton, Obama, Edwards are but all have WAY BETTER foreign policy credentials which is a sad statement about the state of electing people in this country (from student council on up).
The Republican race is totally different. Iowa looks to be a two man showdown between Huckabee who came out of nowhere a month or two ago and Romney, who has been desperately clinging to his lead with the help of a huge ground game and lots of negative ads. If Romney loses Iowa he has to win New Hampshire. Huckabee is way behind in New Hampshire because it isn't populated with tons of extremist christian fuckers like Iowa (who ever said this was a balanced post?) so if he doesn't win in Iowa, he will fall way behind after New Hampshire and need a strong showing in two weeks in South Carolina, where he may get one (see earlier demographic analysis). McCain is hedging his bets on winning New Hampshire and anything less could doom him and Thompson seems to be hedging on South Carolina and a strong third place showing in Iowa will help him a lot. Giuliani is a crazy motherfucker. He is giving a strong middle finger to momentum and waiting pretty much until February 5 to try and win Florida, California, New York, all big states with enough delegates to maybe give him the nomination, this has never been done before but it might work. Whichever Republican finishes third in Iowa out of Giuliani, McCain and Thompson will get a boost of legitimacy.
My prediction: Romney wins Iowa by about 5% and Clinton nicks Obama by 2% with Edwards about 4% behind him.
My hope: Romney and Huckabee are discovered to be illegals and are deported and Obama wins Iowa and immediately declares an Obama-Kucinich ticket.
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