I get a lot of crap out here at Duke because I love football and I'm going to a basketball school. Hoops rule around here and pigskin is an afterthought. But recently my dislike of basketball has been vindicated, and by the most unlikely of heroes. Turns out you can explain why football is the better sport in mathematical terms using a little discipline called Game Theory.
Game theory is a mathematical study of strategic decision-making based on limited information. I'm no good - no good at all, frankly - at higher-level mathematics, but Jesus Christ game theory is awesome.
One of the tenants of game theory is that you become more interested in something if that thing has a higher chance of being the determining factor in a contest. We see this in voting rhetoric and behavior:
In national elections, many people believe (statistically correctly, by the way) that their vote for President doesn't matter, as it's one of a hundred million or more. What they mean when they say "matter" is that their vote has a chance to be the deciding vote; i.e., after 100+ million votes have been cast for John Q Democrat and Percy H Republican there will be a dead even split, and their vote will decide the election. That's a 1 in 100 million chance, so its not likely that your vote will be the deciding factor.
Now take a committee vote. Let's assume there are 5 committee members. Now your vote has a 20% chance of being the deciding vote; i.e., your vote "matters."
I am convinced this also plays out in sports, and it's why I can say quantitatively what I have believed for years: compared to football, baseball, and hockey, basketball sucks.
Game theory would say that basketball is not as cool a sport because its scoring system is too diluted. In a typical game somewhere near 200 points will be scored. That means that one basket, one drive, one all-out-for-the-win score has only a 1% chance of making the difference in the game. It makes the scoring unimportant: any particular hoop likely won't decide the game. It also makes it seem random: any measly score that is only worth 1% of the game's total output can decide a win or a loss. Flipping coins is more interesting if you ask me.
Football, baseball and hockey are awesome precisely because scoring is more rare, and therefore more important: each score "matters."
Baseball and hockey games average combined scores of around 8, meaning each point matters a lot: it represents about 13% of the total score and has about a 1 in 8 chance of deciding the game. Scores are important, and a game decided by one score doesn't seem like a meaningless difference. After all, the winning team put up 13% more on the board.
Football is the best. Similar to baseball and hockey, most games have around 10 scores (TDs and FGs combined) between the two teams. Unlike baseball and hockey, however, those scores can have significantly different values: a TD and the PAT are worth more than twice what a FG is worth. Assigning multiple points to each score and then having an over 100% differentiation between different types of scores (as opposed to basketball's 2 vs. 3 point shots, where 3's are vastly rarer and make for a mere 50% difference) allows for higher point totals where games can still be decided by one point, but not at the insane highs of basketball scores. This allows for an added layer of strategy to be injected into the game, while still making each score have about 10% chance of being the deciding factor. This makes a 1 point difference in football still important, rather than making a 1 point win seem random and meaningless like in basketball.
So there you have it. It's a mathematical fact that football is awesome and basketball sucks. Don't agree? Take it up with game theory.
1/26/10
Favre
There have been two other posts on this great blog about Brett Favre, one by me from earlier this football season here and an ironic one from Drew a long time ago here.
Sunday night was, simply put, an amazing football game. New Orleans and Minnesota fought it out schoolyard style with 4 tie scores throughout the game, there was sloppy play sure, but it was a helluva game. New Orleans didn't look particularly good but they made plays when it mattered, forcing a shitload of turnovers.
Favre took a pounding as well, I'm guessing he broke his ankle and just decided to chew on some gravel and not tell anyone and ended up costing his team a shot at the win. This, if it is the end of his career, is oddly fitting. You live by the Favre and die by the Favre.
We learned early in our core classes at Whitman about the "hero" as personified by Odysseus, a man full of much ability but with some fatal flaws, hubris, etc. For me, Favre is the ultimate hero, glorious, yet flawed and it was all on display last Sunday as the old dog rallied his young butter-handed team while they were cornered but just as the golden prize loomed on the horizon his old treacherous maidens lured him down the whirlpool for one more dance with the devil.
here or villain article here
Sunday night was, simply put, an amazing football game. New Orleans and Minnesota fought it out schoolyard style with 4 tie scores throughout the game, there was sloppy play sure, but it was a helluva game. New Orleans didn't look particularly good but they made plays when it mattered, forcing a shitload of turnovers.
Favre took a pounding as well, I'm guessing he broke his ankle and just decided to chew on some gravel and not tell anyone and ended up costing his team a shot at the win. This, if it is the end of his career, is oddly fitting. You live by the Favre and die by the Favre.
We learned early in our core classes at Whitman about the "hero" as personified by Odysseus, a man full of much ability but with some fatal flaws, hubris, etc. For me, Favre is the ultimate hero, glorious, yet flawed and it was all on display last Sunday as the old dog rallied his young butter-handed team while they were cornered but just as the golden prize loomed on the horizon his old treacherous maidens lured him down the whirlpool for one more dance with the devil.
here or villain article here
1/24/10
More Wisdom
This is a true story.
Years ago when I was traveling down a lonesome Road into the west, an Old Man on the Road asked me for what I could spare in gas money. He told me if I helped him out he would enlighten me. I bit. I gave him the $3.75 or so in my pocket left over from the fiver I'd just dropped on a Slim Jim.
What this Old Man said has haunted me ever since.
He asked me if I liked South Park, the television show. I was surprised an old timer like him would even know about that show. I told him yes, and that I liked it because I was from Colorado. Then the Old Man proceeded to drop Wisdom on me:
"Good son, good. More folk should know about that show, because that show is the Truth Itself. Mark my words, ye wayward young'un: if ye live long enough, ye'll see everything on that show come to pass. It's only a matter of time. As inevitable as the sun rising and setting. As true as the universe itself."
Lightning struck seemingly from nowhere and the wind suddenly blew cold upon the high Utah plain. I was dismissive at first; I just told the Old Man "thanks," wished him well, and got back in my car.
Turns out the Old Man was right. As time goes by, I'm noticing more and more, wilder and wilder episodes of South Park are coming to pass in everyday life. Here's the latest example:
Pandemonium as Chinese government blocks the internet to an entire region of the country for the last seven months
South Park's warning this would happen
Beware readers of the Monstro Blog: you never know when or where Wisdom may tap you on the shoulder and ask for spare change. Fortuna favet fortibus.
Years ago when I was traveling down a lonesome Road into the west, an Old Man on the Road asked me for what I could spare in gas money. He told me if I helped him out he would enlighten me. I bit. I gave him the $3.75 or so in my pocket left over from the fiver I'd just dropped on a Slim Jim.
What this Old Man said has haunted me ever since.
He asked me if I liked South Park, the television show. I was surprised an old timer like him would even know about that show. I told him yes, and that I liked it because I was from Colorado. Then the Old Man proceeded to drop Wisdom on me:
"Good son, good. More folk should know about that show, because that show is the Truth Itself. Mark my words, ye wayward young'un: if ye live long enough, ye'll see everything on that show come to pass. It's only a matter of time. As inevitable as the sun rising and setting. As true as the universe itself."
Lightning struck seemingly from nowhere and the wind suddenly blew cold upon the high Utah plain. I was dismissive at first; I just told the Old Man "thanks," wished him well, and got back in my car.
Turns out the Old Man was right. As time goes by, I'm noticing more and more, wilder and wilder episodes of South Park are coming to pass in everyday life. Here's the latest example:
Pandemonium as Chinese government blocks the internet to an entire region of the country for the last seven months
South Park's warning this would happen
Beware readers of the Monstro Blog: you never know when or where Wisdom may tap you on the shoulder and ask for spare change. Fortuna favet fortibus.
1/23/10
Monkeys!
Monkeys are seriously like the coolest animals ever.
I have had a personal fascination with monkeys for years. I can't exactly pin the moment I realized I loved monkeys, but it goes back at least as far as the time they befriended me as a child and raised me in the jungle.
One reason to love monkeys is that they're so closely related to people, yet still throw poop whenever they want. Sometimes zoos put diapers on them - OH MY GOD it's adorable when they do that!
Here's another reason to love monkeys: they're just like little people! Cute, ugly, dumb little people! You ask me why I think monkeys are so cute? Well, why does everybody think little kids are so cute? THEY'RE LITERALLY THE SAME THING.
Here's a great picture of a monkey doing exactly what I would be doing in it's situation. And here's a link to the story.
I have had a personal fascination with monkeys for years. I can't exactly pin the moment I realized I loved monkeys, but it goes back at least as far as the time they befriended me as a child and raised me in the jungle.
One reason to love monkeys is that they're so closely related to people, yet still throw poop whenever they want. Sometimes zoos put diapers on them - OH MY GOD it's adorable when they do that!
Here's another reason to love monkeys: they're just like little people! Cute, ugly, dumb little people! You ask me why I think monkeys are so cute? Well, why does everybody think little kids are so cute? THEY'RE LITERALLY THE SAME THING.
Here's a great picture of a monkey doing exactly what I would be doing in it's situation. And here's a link to the story.
1/22/10
1/20/10
Seriously? People are pissed about this?
Did anyone else find this the funniest ad of the last five years? (with that new Bud Light paintball commercial a close second):
Turns out, some people aren't just offended, but flat out pissed about this ad. The company, Air New Zealand, which produced and aired it has recently taken it down as a result.
I ask: who are these "some people," and why do they always suck? I don't know, but I have a good feeling many of them call themselves "feminists"....
Turns out, some people aren't just offended, but flat out pissed about this ad. The company, Air New Zealand, which produced and aired it has recently taken it down as a result.
I ask: who are these "some people," and why do they always suck? I don't know, but I have a good feeling many of them call themselves "feminists"....
1/19/10
Sunday Morning Politics
Most of you know that I am a bit of a political junkie. Considering that I've been on payroll for two different campaigns and a full-time volunteer on a third, you might even say I'm almost a professional - as long as your definition of "professional" doesn't include always wearing shoes.
A common ritual among political junkies is the vacuum-like consumption of several influential Sunday morning talk shows. In order of prestige, they tend to go like this: Meet the Press, This Week, Fox News Sunday, Face the Nation, State of the Union, the McLaughlin Group, and the Chris Matthews Show. Prestige is not everything though - in order of how good/useful/insightful they are, they tend to go like this: This Week, Meet the Press, the Chris Matthews Show, the McLaughlin Group, Fox News Sunday, State of the Union, and Face the Nation (only really useful for Bob Schieffer's ~2 minute commentary at the end that occasionally displays moments of greatness).
These shows as a genre do have their critics however, many of whom argue that they do nothing but reinforce status-quo inside-the-beltway thinking or provide a mouthpiece for government officials pushing agendas. For more egregious examples of the latter, see: Meet the Press since Tim Russert died, This Week since the Obama administration took over, Fox News Sunday every single fucking minute of every single fucking show.
I'm aware of their weaknesses, but they sure don't stop me from watching these shows every single week religiously. They're all available online, and along with the Daily Show make up my ONLY consistent media intake.
But I have to admit, their weaknesses are wearing on me. I'm craving a bit more; the political junkie in me is nervously scratching my neck.
I may have found my answer: Fahreed Zakaria GPS, Sunday mornings on CNN. I haven't watched the show, but I have seen Fahreed speak a couple times now and I really respect the man for his insight, intellectual ability, surprisingly-tuned journalistic instincts, and blending of inside-the-beltway thinking with inside-the-Ivory-Tower thinking (hey, at least it's some kind of diversity of analysis). So now that I stumbled across this clip the other day and it blew my mind, I may have to add GPS to my Sunday list.
Take 10 minutes and enjoy:
Eliot Spitzer, Naomi Klein, David Frum, and Stephen Dubner on Bank Bonuses
A common ritual among political junkies is the vacuum-like consumption of several influential Sunday morning talk shows. In order of prestige, they tend to go like this: Meet the Press, This Week, Fox News Sunday, Face the Nation, State of the Union, the McLaughlin Group, and the Chris Matthews Show. Prestige is not everything though - in order of how good/useful/insightful they are, they tend to go like this: This Week, Meet the Press, the Chris Matthews Show, the McLaughlin Group, Fox News Sunday, State of the Union, and Face the Nation (only really useful for Bob Schieffer's ~2 minute commentary at the end that occasionally displays moments of greatness).
These shows as a genre do have their critics however, many of whom argue that they do nothing but reinforce status-quo inside-the-beltway thinking or provide a mouthpiece for government officials pushing agendas. For more egregious examples of the latter, see: Meet the Press since Tim Russert died, This Week since the Obama administration took over, Fox News Sunday every single fucking minute of every single fucking show.
I'm aware of their weaknesses, but they sure don't stop me from watching these shows every single week religiously. They're all available online, and along with the Daily Show make up my ONLY consistent media intake.
But I have to admit, their weaknesses are wearing on me. I'm craving a bit more; the political junkie in me is nervously scratching my neck.
I may have found my answer: Fahreed Zakaria GPS, Sunday mornings on CNN. I haven't watched the show, but I have seen Fahreed speak a couple times now and I really respect the man for his insight, intellectual ability, surprisingly-tuned journalistic instincts, and blending of inside-the-beltway thinking with inside-the-Ivory-Tower thinking (hey, at least it's some kind of diversity of analysis). So now that I stumbled across this clip the other day and it blew my mind, I may have to add GPS to my Sunday list.
Take 10 minutes and enjoy:
Eliot Spitzer, Naomi Klein, David Frum, and Stephen Dubner on Bank Bonuses
1/7/10
Have Pigs Flown?
I never thought I'd see the day that Taco Bell introduced a healthy diet menu, but lo and behold such things have happened. As the article suggests, from the place that thought 7 layers were adequate for a bean dip and calling things a "fourth meal" this is a real surprise. Also, who the fuck really thinks anything you can get from that shithole is going to make you look better. It is seriously some of the nastiest shit that is out there. I never really eat fast food anymore, haven't for years but a mere two days ago I was walking to a meeting and had a sudden and undeniable need to use the bathroom. The corner gas station bathroom that I was nearest to was out of service so they pointed me down the block to the joint KFC/Taco Hell. I walked in and asked for the bathroom key to which I was told I had to be a customer. Just the fact that KFC and Taco Smell have joined forces to share a building and put their menus side by side should be a clear sign to anyone voluntarily entering said space as a customer that they have merged from the onramp onto a highway to hell. Anyways, I scanned the menu to find how much not shitting my pants was going to cost me and the answer was a financially reassuring 79 cents in the form of a "cheese roll-up" which I bought and then threw out immediately. It was literally a tortilla with a piece of cheese half melted inside it defrosted from the freezer. In other words it was a poor attempt to recreate a 3am frat snack.
So here's the takeaway. Taco Bell is marketing this new thing all wrong. They should talk about how cheap as shit their food is, which would enable you to get a gym membership more easily than if you paid say 3 or 4 times as much for shit from other, more expensive fast food spots.
So here's the takeaway. Taco Bell is marketing this new thing all wrong. They should talk about how cheap as shit their food is, which would enable you to get a gym membership more easily than if you paid say 3 or 4 times as much for shit from other, more expensive fast food spots.
1/3/10
2010- what does it all mean?
Well, another year has passed, celebrated by raucous parties and next day gym memberships. As I was on the phone with Drew I witnessed two 400ish pound women stumbling drunk along the streets of Oakland trying to help each other along until one just went down hard. Auld Lang Syne. Our blog fell two, count it TWO entries short of matching the Glider Bison in our vaunted rivalry, but we did have more posts than 2008. I vow to make 2010 a strong year for blogging, helped by my returning levels of literacy and hopefully interesting life and mind experiences. I also hope to meet and date Natalie Portman, she just seems so nice and like we'd both have a lot to offer each other, I think it's much more likely of a resolution than you are giving me credit for scorning reader. Natalie- you are a smart, modern woman, which means you are probably doing what I do and Googling yourself at all hours of the day. So when you see this pop up, just consider that I'm a totally chill guy (also Jewish) who wants to take you on 4-7 dates so we can connect. Oh, sorry, sidetracked, happy new year's loyal readers! Fasten your diapers.
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